by Priya Jadhav
Exports of goods to Turkiye, Vietnam and Indonesia to be among the highest-growing export destinations
Chemicals and pharmaceuticals will be among the fastest-growing sectors at 8.1% annually
Value of exports of goods was USD 401bn in 2021
Export growth rate of 7.5% to outpace global average of 5.0 %
31 May 2023, India – Future of Trade: New opportunities in high-growth corridors – a research report by Standard Chartered – projects that global trade is set to reach USD 32.6tn with a growth rate of 5 per cent by 2030. Trade corridors anchored in Asia, Africa and the Middle East will outpace global trade growth rate up to four percentage points, driving combined trade volume in these regions to USD 14.4tn and to account for 44 per cent of global trade by 2030. \
India will be a key driver of this global trade growth, with its exports of goods projected to grow at an average annual rate of 7.5 per cent (outpacing the global average of 5 per cent) to reach USD 773bn by 2030 from USD 401bn in 2021.
India: corridors to watch
Exports of goods to Turkiye, Vietnam and Indonesia are among some of the highest-growing, while exports of goods to the US, Mainland China and the UAE will be the highest by volume.
| Corridor | Exports (USD 2030 CAGR) | Imports (USD 2030 CAGR) |
| Turkiye | 23bn (12.2%) | 5bn (13%) |
| Vietnam | 17bn (10.6%) | 21bn (10.7%) |
| Indonesia | 14bn (10.6%) | 46bn (9.8%) |
| UAE | 60bn (8.2%) | 72bn (9.0%) |
| Mainland China | 49bn (6.5%) | 212bn (8.0%) |
| USA | 122bn (6.5%) | 77bn (6.9%) |
India’s FTAs with the UAE and Australia have recently come into force – further increasing India’s competitiveness as a manufacturing and export powerhouse.
India: export sectors to watch
India is expected to grow its exporting sectors by supporting innovation and capacity expansions, as well as building sector ecosystems. At 0.45, India’s exports are more diversified than the global average of 0.68.
| Sector | Share of exports (2030) | 2021-2030 CAGR |
| Metals and minerals | 31% | 7.1% |
| Chemicals and pharmaceuticals | 19% | 8.1% |
| Textile and apparel | 15% | 8.5% |
Global overview: high-growth corridors in Asia, Africa and the Middle East
| Corridor | CAGR (2021-2030) | Size (USD 2030) |
| Intra – ASEAN | 8.7% | 0.8tn |
| South Asia – ASEAN | 8.6% | 0.3tn |
| South Asia – Africa | 8.2% | 0.2tn |
| South Asia – Middle East | 7.0% | 0.5tn |
| East Asia – ASEAN | 6.3% | 2.1tn |
| Intra – East Asia | 3.4% | 2.2tn |
The research included a survey of more than 100 global business leaders in 13 markets who shared the following as their top challenges:
Rising geopolitical conflicts and tensions (54%)
High and volatile energy and commodity prices (52%)
Poor infrastructure quality (46%)
High inflation (45%)
Sanctions, tariffs, export bans (44%)
Game changer: digital supply chain finance solutions
By 2030, increased adoption of digital supply chain finance solutions could drive up exports by 7.5% in the 13 surveyed markets, an uplift of USD 791bn. Digital supply chain finance solutions can also help drive greater financial inclusion and participation for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), help companies track adherence to ESG criteria and reduce the risk of fraud and cost of monitoring.
Michael Spiegel, Global Head, Transaction Banking, Standard Chartered, said: “Global trade is set drive the next decade of growth. We aim to help our clients improve access to finance and achieve ESG compliance across their entire supply chains. Digital supply chain finance solutions will play a game-changing role in achieving these goals and enable sustainable trade growth across developing economies.”
Gaurav Bhatnagar, Head of Trade and Working Capital, India & South Asia said “As the global economy fully reopens and cross-border trade accelerates, South Asia region is at the heart of global trade growth and is perfectly positioned to be an export powerhouse driven by India and its dominance in key sectors like textiles, metals & minerals, Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals. We are also witnessing significant momentum in the intra South Asia regional trade. Standard Chartered with over 160 years of presence in India/ South Asia, is well positioned to support the clients to participate effectively in this emerging global trade opportunity. Additionally, our commitment to partner with our clients in their sustainability journey becomes a critical success factor for clients as the overall shift towards sustainability from Governments as well as consumers gains momentum.”
