Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) forecasts India’s total merchandise exports to continue to cross the US$ 100 bn mark, for the fourth consecutive quarter in a row. The first quarter exports would be close to US$ 120 bn (US$ 117.2 bn) growing at 22.7%. Non-oil exports continue to witness a double-digit growth (12.6%) amounting to US$ 93 bn, during the first quarter (April-June) of 2022-23. This compares to US$ 95.5 bn and US$ 82.6 bn of total exports and non-oil exports, respectively, for the corresponding quarter of the previous year. The rise in India’s exports could be attributed largely to the continued increase in global commodity prices driven by supply shocks, enhanced price competitiveness owing to exchange rate movements, and benefits from possible trade diversion. The growth forecast may be subject to commodity price volatility, and uncertainties in the global economy mainly driven by the current geo-political tension.
Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports are released by India Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first week of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the 2nd quarter of FY 2023 (i.e. July-September 2022) would be released during the first week of September 2022.
The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Vice Chancellor, BASE University, Bengaluru; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.
As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.
